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Chapter 3 Dr Wayne Stewart MS sixth edition
LABs 3,4
LABs 1,2
LABs 5,6 etc
Theory
ASSIGNMENT 1: Hints
Function is not asked for but you are free to make an algorithm and create a function if you wish
Make sure you are reading the book
Check out these examples!!
Important!!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes%27_theorem
Bayes’ rule – 2 usages Invert probability cond. P(B|A) → P(A|B)
2 Ways A whole new way to do statistics
This year we will do some Bayesian analysis
Bayesian Simple Linear Regression data { int<lower=0> N; vector[N] x;
vector[N] y; } parameters { real beta0; real beta1; real<lower=0> sigma;
} model { y ~ normal(beta0 + beta1 * x, sigma); beta0 ~ normal(0,100); beta1 ~ normal(0,100); sigma ~ gamma(1,1);
}
Counting Rules
Birthday Problem (Use 𝑃 𝐴
𝑐 = 1 − 𝑃(𝐴 ))
• What is the probability that two or more people in a random sample of size k people have a common birthday? • Let A be the event 2 or more people of the k have the same birthday • 𝐴𝑐 is the event all people of the k have different birthdays
birthday ← function(k){
- 1 - exp(lchoose(365,k) + lfactorial(k) - k*log(365)) +}
birthday(20:24) [1] 0.4114384 0.4436883 0.4756953 0.5072972 0.5383443
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Studs
The connection between probability and statistics
The connection between probability and statistics